Cross-border Link (002640) financial report comments: adjustments to bank credit policies cause pressure on the company’s short-term performance

Cross-border Link (002640) financial report comments: adjustments to bank credit policies cause pressure on the company’s short-term performance
Affected by bank drawdowns, the shortage of funds caused shortages in the global season and in Qianhai, and the company’s 18Q4 and 19Q1 revenue growth rates were close to 9% / 2%, respectively.At the same time, due to the impact of the inventory price drop, the company’s net profit on January 19, 2018 decreased by 17% / 15%, respectively.In the short term, adjustments to bank credit policies have pressured the company’s short-term performance. It is expected that the company’s loan pressure will slightly improve starting from the second quarter, but considering that the company has continued to have insufficient supplies for 2 quarters, it is expected that the increase in C-end purchase activity will lag slightly.Therefore, it is expected to consolidate at the bottom in the near future; in the medium and long term, the company will start from the data and technology end, and gradually develop its core competitiveness in logistics system, supply chain system, private brand system, intelligent customer service, and intelligent marketing system.The level of leading position can wait for the company’s funding pressure to ease the GMV growth rate improvement and recovery. The layout has maintained a high growth in revenue for 18 years, and the profit has been affected by the significant increase in the decline in inventory prices.The company realized revenue of 215 in 18 years.34 ppm, a 53-year increase of 53.62%. The profit side was affected by the significant increase in the inventory depreciation. The operating profit / net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 19 year-on-year.71% / 17.07%, achieving a budget benefit of 0.41 yuan, the distribution plan is to pay a cash dividend of 0 for every 10 shares.45 yuan (including tax).In terms of quarters, Q4 was affected by bank loan drawdowns, marketing supplements, and reductions in stocking funds, which dragged down the single-quarter revenue growth rate to 8.83%; At the same time, the amount of asset impairment increased by 4.$ 700 million, resulting in a decrease in operating profit / net attributable profit by 2 respectively.2.6 billion, 2.0.5 billion.The weak situation continued 杭州桑拿网 in 19Q1, with revenue / operating profit / attributable net profit or an increase of 2, respectively.19% /-14.94% /-15.29%. Affected by bank lending, marketing promotion and insufficient stocking funds, the income growth rate of 18Q4 / 19Q1 gradually increased to 8.83% / 2.19%. 1) 18Q4 global Tesco revenue increased significantly: 18 years of global Tesco revenue increased by 8.44% to US $ 12.4 billion, affected by the decline in inventory and accrual, realizing net profit attributable to mothers2.48 ‰, a decrease of 65 per year.31%.Of which 18Q4 income is 25.60%.In terms of business, annual cross-border export self-support growth.19%, of which the electronic station GB revenue increases by 6 every year.96% to 45.At 91 ppm, clothing website revenue has grown for ten years.23% to 35.3.8 billion.Tripartite exports grow 南京夜网 by 25 per year.68% to 39.3.9 billion.Revenue from cross-border import business 45.35% to 3.6.9 billion yuan. 2) Due to the impact of new product development and price increase on the Amazon platform, Qianhai Paoxun’s profit growth has been slower than revenue growth.18 years of revenue growth of 40.95% to 34.1.7 billion, net profit attributable to mothers grows by 23 each year.78% to 2.3.8 billion.Among them, 18Q4 revenue and net profit growth rate was 13.52% /-13.64%.The reason why the profit growth rate is not as fast as the revenue growth rate is that the company has increased the development and promotion of new products since the second half of the year. At the same time, the sales scale has been increased, and the logistics and storage costs have also increased accordingly. The merger of the Amazon platform price increase effect has led to faster rate increases.Caused by. 3) Youyi has developed steadily and has achieved its performance commitment targets.On February 12, 2018, revenue increased by 57 in ten years.88% to 56.1.1 billion, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 52 each year.16% to 2.900 million. The consolidation of Youyi led to a decrease in gross profit margin, but the enhancement of refined management fee rate and the decrease in expense rate.At the same time, due to the significant increase in the inventory price drop, the 18-year net profit margin fell 2.62 points to 2.85%. 1) The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin declined in 18 years9.19PCT to 40.58%, mainly due to the low gross profit consolidation of Youyi E-commerce. 2) The expense ratio during the period of fine-tuned consolidation and built-in main business refinement operations has dropped significantly7.86PCT to 34.34%, of which sales expenses decrease by 6 every year.95PCT to 31.51%, the operating expense ratio drops by 0 every year.20PCT to 1.97%, financial expenses fall by 0 every year.71PCT to 0.86%. 3) Asset impairment losses for 18 years increased by 4.68 million, of which bad debt losses increased by 33.94 million yuan, inventory loss losses increased by 4.3.3 billion. In 1Q1, the decrease in gross profit margin was greater than the decrease in expense ratio, and the impact of a slight increase in asset impairment increased the net profit margin by 1%.01pct to 4.66%. 1) Affected by the consolidation of Youyi in February 18, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin decreased by 1 in 19Q1.41pct to 43.3%. 2) During the period, the expense ratio drops by zero.91pct to 36.95%, of which the sales expense ratio / management expense ratio / period expense ratio are -2.2pct / + 1.93pct / -0.63%. 3) The inventory price loss increased by 4.09 million yuan, and the bad debt loss increased by 16.59 million yuan. Refined management capabilities have been strengthened, and inventory and cash flow indicators have improved. However, due to the extension of the three-party platform repayment cycle, the scale of accounts receivable has grown rapidly. 1) The growth rate of inventories in 18 years is slower than the growth rate of revenues. At the end of 18 years, the company’s net inventory increased by 30 per year.57% to 50.US $ 6.6 billion, mainly due to the increase in the number of products and the increase in the main industry’s sales scale and the increase in stocks.At the end of 19Q1, the scale of inventory reached 47.14, an annual increase of 7.74%, in a benign range. 2) The accounts receivable at the end of 18 / 19Q1 increased by 153 times.98% / 56.86%.The reason for the rapid growth of accounts receivable was due to the prolonged budget settlement cycle of Youyi and the three parties. 3) Net cash flow from operating activities turned positive.At the end of 18 years and the end of 19Q1, the company’s net cash flow from operating activities was 1, respectively.83 ppm / 0.5.3 billion, cash flow situation has improved. Investment advice and profit forecast: In the medium and long term, the company starts with data and technology, and its core competitiveness in logistics system, supply chain system, private brand system, intelligent customer service, and intelligent marketing system is still at the leading level in the industry.However, in the short term, adjustments to bank credit policies have caused the company’s short-term performance to be under pressure. It is expected that the company’s loan pressure will slightly improve starting from the second quarter.Lag, temporarily lowered EPS to EPS for 2019-2012 to 0.66, 0.85 and 1.16 yuan, current market value of 17.3 billion, corresponding to 19PE18X, affected by short-term funding pressure, is expected to consolidate at the bottom soon, temporarily downgraded to “prudent recommendation-A” Risk warning: industry policy risk exceeds expectations; import and other new business cultivation is lower thanExpectation; pledge risk.